Divided by Religion? Populist Radical-Right Success and Trust Among Muslim and Non-Muslim Individuals.

The growing support for populist radical-right parties (PRRPs) across Europe reflects increasingly negative sentiments toward immigration, particularly the immigration of Muslim individuals. These parties have gained increasing support in various Western European countries, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands, and often portray Muslim individuals as a threat to European culture and values. Previous research has documented an overall increase in anti-Muslim attitudes in Europe, even exceeding anti-immigrant sentiments more broadly. However, little is known about how the rise of PRRPs affects the trust of Muslim individuals. Both trust in political institutions and generalized social trust (referring to trust in unknown others) may be undermined by the strength of PRRPs. Political trust may be undermined by the increasing presence and electoral success of PRRPs in national parliaments, potentially reducing their perceived legitimacy. Conversely, generalized social trust may erode due to perceived anti-Muslim sentiments among the general public and increased discrimination. Therefore, this study examines how the electoral success of PRRPs influences political trust and generalized social trust among Muslim individuals, compared to individuals of other religious affiliations or non-religious backgrounds. Specifically, this study explores how gender intersects with religious background and PRRP electoral strength in shaping individual trust. While Muslim women, who are often visually identifiable through headscarves, are stereotypically perceived as oppressed, Muslim men are more likely to be described as threats to national security by PRRPs. To address these questions, I combine individual-level data from waves 1 to 11 of the European Social Survey with national-level PRRP performance from ParlGov. Overall, this analysis aims to shed light on the intersectional effects of religion, gender, and political context on trust. Thus, this study contributes both to a better understanding of how political shifts influence minority populations in Europe and how PRRP success affects societal trust more broadly.