Resilient community energy in wartime: evidence from Ukraine

Russia's systematic targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, inflicting damages and reducing generation capacity to one-third of pre-war levels . Despite relentless attacks, Ukraine’s energy system has continued to deliver essential services. This study examines local energy resilience outcomes among Ukrainian municipalities (hromadas) during armed conflict, identifying how community engagement, perceived security threats, and local administrative capabilities jointly shape community energy resilience. Drawing on two nationally representative surveys of local government representatives, we construct a novel Community Energy Resilience Index (0-1 scale) operationalized as backup power availability across seven critical infrastructure domains: government services, population protection, education, healthcare, social services, heating systems, and water supply. The analysis focuses on three explanatory dimensions. First, perceived security threats (composite index, 1–5 scale) capture external support needs across infrastructure, housing and shelters, integration of internally displaced persons , counter-propaganda, unemployment, humanitarian aid, education, data protection, and medical assistance. In line with crisis decision-making theory, heightened threat perception can trigger urgency and prioritization but also erode trust, overload local capacity, and increase coordination challenges, making transparent and equitable governance crucial for effective response. Perceived security threats are therefore expected to be a negative predictor of community energy resilience. Second, community engagement (composite index, 1–5 scale) encompasses inclusivity initiatives, support for vulnerable groups, cohesion-building, trust, anti-corruption efforts, and participatory dialogue. Drawing on social capital theory, dense networks of trust and reciprocity underpin collective action and cooperation, which become critical for sustaining energy services when formal institutions are disrupted. Community engagement is thus expected to be a positive predictor of community energy resilience. Third, local administrative capabilities (composite index, 1–5 scale) include the use of digital platforms, public consultations, emergency and continuity planning, participatory budgeting, and cross-sector partnerships. Emerging work on urban and energy resilience similarly highlights that robust local institutions, administrative professionalism, and learning-oriented governance strengthen the ability to plan for, absorb, and recover from disruptions. Local administrative capabilities are therefore conceptualized as a positive predictor of community energy resilience. Integrating crisis governance and energy transitions frameworks, this study analyzes panel data from Ukrainian municipalities to empirically reconceptualize resilience as a socio-institutional outcome. The findings are expected to directly guide policies to foster community microgrids and supporting Ukraine’s broader EU-aligned energy reconstruction amid ongoing conflict (EUISS, 2025). This applied approach emphasizes actionable governance and institutional capacities rather than abstract notions, aligning closely with ongoing reforms and policy priorities for decentralized, resilient energy systems in Ukraine. The lessons from Ukraine’s resilient experience offers valuable insights for strengthening energy security across Europe. Crucially, Ukraine’s wartime experience underscores that energy security thrives not through dependence on single, centralized interconnectors but via meshed networks of numerous smaller, flexible connections. Given the current geopolitical volatility, these insights present a vital pathway for the EU to proactively enhance its energy resilience, mitigating vulnerabilities in an uncertain future.