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Dynamics of Secessionist Mobilization in Autonomous Regions (DynaMo)

Democracy
Ethnic Conflict
Federalism
Nationalism
Political Psychology
Matthias Scantamburlo
Universidad de Deusto
Matthias Scantamburlo
Universidad de Deusto
Matthias Scantamburlo
Universidad de Deusto
Felix Schulte
European Centre for Minority Issues

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Abstract

Across Europe and beyond, secessionist movements are increasingly challenging the stability of multi-level political systems. Existing structuralist and institutionalist approaches often fall short in capturing the dynamic nature of these movements, which can emerge rapidly in response to centralization and exclusive forms of majority nationalism. In recent research (Schulte et al. 2025) we have introduced the concept of “lost autonomy triggers”—sudden and symbolic events signaling a loss of self-government for minority groups—as key catalysts of pro-secessionist sentiment and mobilization. While this work adds a crucial temporal dimension to the study of secessionism, a micro-level understanding of how, why and when such triggers escalate into collective action remains lacking. Specifically, we have limited empirical evidence on the psychological and emotional mechanisms shaping individual responses to autonomy loss. What drives individuals to engage in potentially costly behavior after a loss of self-determination? Is (reactive) secessionism driven more by de jure-objective losses of competencies or by symbolic, identity-relevant losses? To address this gap, we propose a multi-level analytical framework innovatively linking literatures on secessionism and autonomy with psychological research on emotional reactions to shocking events. In doing so, we seek to build a broader comparative research agenda on the interplay between nationalism, centralisation, and the mechanisms of secessionist mobilization.