After Autocracy - Municipal Governance in Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings

What happens to the balance of political power when autocrats leave? I examine municipal councils in Tunisia following the Arab Uprisings, when four weeks of mass protests forced President Ben Ali—after 24 years in power—to step down. This event launched Tunisia’s transition away from autocracy. Political decentralization became a cornerstone of the new constitution drafted by a Constituent Assembly elected in October 2011. Yet municipal elections did not occur until May 2018. During this seven-year gap, the central government appointed and replaced municipal councils by decree, creating so-called special delegations. I compile a novel dataset on all appointed delegations—tracking dates, locations, and council members from official texts—and analyze how appointment frequency relates to protest activity. The transition government (Jan–Oct 2011) replaced nearly 90% of former regime councils within the first year. Subsequent governments continued this cycle, with municipalities experiencing an average of 2.4 council changes between January 2011 and May 2018. The last centrally appointed council assumed office just one month before the elections. My findings reveal a positive correlation between council appointments and protests, with notable heterogeneity along two dimensions: (a) the nature of the appointment and (b) the type of conflict. Two underlying motivations emerge: efforts to assert control in regions exhibiting resistance and attempts to fill power vacuums in areas lacking governance structures. Replacing councils from the old regime and establishing councils in previously ungoverned municipalities tended to pacify tensions. In contrast, repeated appointments are strongly associated with significant increases in violent protests. Event studies support that violent conflict was a reaction to council appointments—not the reverse. Meanwhile, trust in local governments and electoral turnout, which initially surged, declined to pre-Uprising levels. I hypothesize that repeated appointments of special delegations fueled frustration with the transition and political actors, contributing to support for independent candidates. In July 2021, President Kais Saied declared a state of emergency, suspended parliament, and ruled by decree for about a year until a new constitution concentrating power in his hands was approved in July 2022. Since then, the government has undertaken authoritarian-like actions, including detaining opposition figures and prosecuting them in military courts on charges of treason.