The European Union’s Struggle for Climate Leadership at COP30 in Belém: EU Climate Diplomacy under Pressure Ten Years after Paris

The European Union (EU) has long aspired to be a leading actor in combating climate change at the global level. In the ten years since it played a crucial role in the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the EU has worked for the effective implementation of the agreement. The European Green Deal and the EU’s Fit for 55 package are examples of the EU’s attempts to lead by example as a global standard setter to spur climate ambition worldwide and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. However, these goals are in jeopardy as the international context has grown more competitive and turbulent in an era of polycrisis. Against a backdrop of multiple conflicts and geopolitical crises, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strained EU-China relations, and political volatility in the United States, the EU must navigate the climate negotiations increasingly without reliable partners. Using the 2025 UN Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém as a point of departure, this paper examines the role that EU climate diplomacy and leadership played in shaping the conference outcome and analyzes the extent to which the EU achieved its negotiation goals of maintaining the viability of the 1.5°C temperature goal, advancing the transition away from fossil fuels agreed at COP28, operationalizing the Global Goal on Adaptation, and securing implementation of the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance. Methodologically, we investigate these issues by conducting a theoretically guided qualitative content analysis of Council conclusions, Commission statements, and the adopted COP30 decisions, tracing how EU positions traveled from mandate to outcome. Preliminary findings suggest that while the EU preserved key elements of previous agreements and secured gains on adaptation finance, it was unable to advance stronger mitigation commitments in the face of opposition from an emboldened petrostate coalition. The conclusions should shed light on how, in a fragmented geopolitical landscape marked by U.S. withdrawal and an emboldened BRICS-Arab coalition, the EU pursues its leadership strategies in relation to other powerful actors and what outcomes those efforts yield—insights crucial for understanding the EU’s prospects for achieving its global climate change objectives and for exerting influence as an external actor on the world stage.