Migration-Linked Violence and Political Trust in Peripheral Spaces: Spatial Patterns of Perceived Insecurity

Non-urban and peripheral spaces are increasingly recognised as key sites in which the social and political consequences of migration become visible, discussed and contested – in local politics, everyday interactions and residents’ perceptions of security and belonging. Yet we still know relatively little about how people in these settings interpret migration-related security threats and how such interpretations relate to spatial position and political trust. This paper examines how small-scale violent incidents that are framed as involving migrants – such as knife attacks or assaults – resonate across different types of non-urban and peripheral spaces, even when these events are not officially classified as “crises” in a strict sense. The focus is on incidents in which perpetrators are described in early media or political reporting as migrants or as having a migration background, regardless of whether this attribution is later corrected or nuanced. The study analyses two forms of proximity that may structure reactions to such incidents. First, physical proximity, captured by spatial distance to the location of an event, may shape local feelings of insecurity and trust in institutions. Second, symbolic or mediated proximity, captured by the intensity of national media attention, may allow events to travel far beyond their immediate locality and influence perceptions in distant regions. A central question is whether suburban, small-town and rural areas react differently to these incidents than large urban centres, and whether peripheral spaces prove particularly sensitive to such migration-linked events. Empirically, the paper proposes to combine georeferenced survey data on political trust with GIS-based measures of distance, typologies of urban, suburban and rural regions, and indicators of media salience. Using an event-study type design comparing periods before and after selected incidents, the analysis will explore whether systematic changes in political trust can be detected in connection with such events, and how any patterns observed differ across space. By bringing together insights from migration studies, centre–periphery research and scholarship on threat perception, the paper aims to broaden current debates on migration and non-urban spaces. In doing so, it seeks to shift the focus from policy design and governance arrangements towards spatially uneven patterns of perception, insecurity and institutional trust – and to reflect on how these patterns may contribute to contemporary forms of political polarisation between urban cores and peripheral areas.