The Roots of Calm and Chaos: Quantitative Insights into African Regime Transitions

Political regime transitions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) demonstrate a stark dichotomy between peaceful and violent paths, yet the underlying determinants remain insufficiently understood—partly due to missing data, cases, or contexts. This study adopts a comprehensive quantitative approach, utilizing panel data from 44 SSA over 30 years (1990–2020) and employing logistic regression to examine the complex interplay of structural, institutional, and leadership factors shaping transition outcomes. Key findings reveal that prolonged leadership tenure diminishes prospects for peaceful change, while extremist ideologies exacerbate violence risk. Notably, leader age emerges as a stabilizing factor, fostering peaceful transitions, whereas higher educational attainment presents a paradox: it may impede nonviolent change but facilitate conflict resolution during violent upheavals. Economic dynamics—particularly inflation and unemployment—exert differential effects: inflation fosters unrest and dissent, whereas economic hardship reduces the likelihood of peaceful evolution but may inadvertently suppress violence by narrowing available resources for conflict. Robust institutional quality consistently correlates with stability, underscoring governance’s pivotal role. These insights underscore the necessity for multidimensional policy frameworks that foster democratic deepening, bolster economic resilience, and strengthen institutional capacity. By integrating these interdependent factors, this study offers an innovative, systemic blueprint for navigating Africa’s complex regime transition landscape—highlighting pathways to sustainable peace and stability.