Political Discontent as the Missing Link between Populism and Euroscepticism

Although populism and Euroscepticism have been described as "two faces of the same coin" (Rooduijn & Van Kessel, 2019), there is no consistent empirical evidence that the two phenomena move together, either on the demand side or on the supply side. Approaching these phenomena from a demand-side perspective, we argue that the broader climate in which citizens evaluate political institutions is an important factor shaping their connection. We propose that this climate can be better understood by introducing a third attitudinal dimension: the mood of political discontent—a societal-level sentiment rooted in distrust toward institutions, a feeling of low political efficacy, and dissatisfaction with policy outcomes. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, we employ Stimson’s Dyad Ratios Algorithm to reconstruct longitudinal indicators of political discontent across EU member states between 2000 and 2024, capturing both its domestic and EU-directed dimensions. In our empirical analysis, we first analyse the contribution of the underlying components in shaping political discontent. Next, we trace the temporal trajectory of political discontent across EU countries, highlighting periods in which, including during major crises, discontent intensifies, stabilizes, or becomes increasingly volatile. Our results show that political discontent evolves over time in both intensity and direction, with domestic- and EU-directed indicators often following distinct trajectories. Finally, we analyse the relation between political discontent, Euroscepticism, and populism in European countries. In so doing, our paper sheds light on the underlying mood in which the link between Euroscepticism and populism can take shape.