Can Democracy Breed its Own Opponents? Evidence from the Last 30 Years in Latin America

Previous research has found that democratic support is endogenous: living under a democratic regime increases support for democracy. This finding is significant for newer democracies, as it would imply that if they manage to survive the early hurdles of authoritarian backlash, they should converge into democratic stability, at least insofar as public opinion matters for stability. However, in Latin America, this has not been the case. Despite the widespread processes of democratization that swept the region during the third wave of democratization, Latin American citizens appear increasingly indifferent towards democracy, according to several polls. I tackle this apparent paradox by assessing the effect of living under a democracy on one's lifespan. For this, I combine data of democratic quality in the region, from 1900 until 2024, with opinion data from all waves of the Latinobarometro and LAPOP’s Barometer for the Americas from 1995 until 2024 (approximately 700.000 respondents from 18 countries). Exploiting individual-level variation to democracy across countries, ages, cohorts, and time, I find a possible explanation for the observed tendency. Living under democracy increases support for democracy in the short run, but not in the long run. A parallel effect is observed among individuals living under a dictatorship: a decrease in short-term support for democracy and an increase in long-term support. Finally, I discuss the policy implications of these findings and what they might say about the future of democracy in the region.