Why Do Non-Attached MEPs Matter? Institutional Dynamics in European Parliament Elections

While political parties are the dominant factors in the political landscape, independent candidates, broadly referring to those unaffiliated with any party, are a central element of democratic pluralism: believed to increase the quality of representation, government accountability, and voter satisfaction. Scholars have argued that there is a link between the forms of institutions, electoral and party systems, and the strategies of voters and political parties/candidates. For some, independents lend colour to parliament by making notable contributions to discussions, forming public opinion, and challenging mainstream parties. Moreover, the presence of independent candidates can increase voter turnout and change election outcomes, potentially leading to better constituency representation. By contrast, some studies perceive the presence of significant independent candidacies as a proxy for a lack of party institutionalization and weak party/ideological identification. Non-attached members, also known by the term Non-Inscrits, are members of the European Parliament (MEPs) who do not belong to one of the recognised political groups. Since the first parliamentary elections in 1979, the non-attached candidates in the European Parliament have stood in all elections and won parliamentary seats in all of them, albeit with radical fluctuations. While studies on European and European Union politics focus mainly on major actors such as political parties, political groups, leaders and social movements, independents matter despite being a marginal group. Non-attached MEPs raise crucial questions about political representation, social polarization and personal vote-seeking, especially in the contexts of political and social turmoil such as economic crisis, mass migration, enlargement or Brexit. Drawing on a historical institutionalist approach and original empirical data (1979-2024), this study demonstrates that—beyond the legal provisions enabling their participation and the broader socio-economic context—specific institutional configurations significantly shape the prospects of non-attached MEPs. These institutional dynamics help explain the cyclical rise and decline of non-attached actors across European Parliament elections. Their electoral success is more likely under conditions of weakened party system dynamics such as weakened dominance of the largest parliamentary groups, higher levels of party system fragmentation (ENP), higher electoral volatility and periods marked by declining voter turnout. This study also states that during periods of enlargement, the number of Non-Attached MEPs is likely to increase, as newly admitted national parties need time to align themselves within the European-level party groups. Fragmentation has made stable majorities harder to build. In a parliament where the total percentage of seats held by the two largest groups is less than 50 percent, and the once dominant EPP-S&D ‘grand coalition’ is no longer sufficient to govern alone, the presence of Non-Inscrits signals an increasing opportunity for them to become involved in policy-making process.