Geopolitical Changes as Accelerators for Enlargement? Analyzing the Ukrainian Candidacy for EU Membership

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine acted as a ‘geopolitical awakening’ that significantly altered the rationale regarding the European Union (EU) enlargement. The new geopolitical reality led to Ukraine requesting urgent admission to the EU through a ‘new special procedure’. However, this proposal was swiftly dismissed under the argument that it would allow war to enter the EU and undermine its resilience. Moreover, such a proposal would further undermine the EU enlargement’s legal aspect. Traditionally, the EU enlargement has been guided by a strict legal rules-based framework, which is grounded in the ‘Copenhagen criteria’, alignment with the ‘acquis Communautaire’ and the candidate-states' gradual ‘merit-based integration process’. The ambitious goal pertaining to Ukraine’s accession to the EU by 2030 raises crucial legal issues regarding the country’s enlargement process. Consequently, this paper explores whether the geopolitical changes amidst the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine have ‘imposed’ certain geopolitical considerations on a historically technocratic and legal process. This study hypothesizes that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has (positively) accelerated the accession trajectory of Ukraine, despite certain legal provisions. The ‘faster’ accession process is not simply the result of commitments regarding the necessary reforms, but mainly due to the urgency resulting from the war’s geographic and strategic proximity to the EU. Methodologically, this paper employs a qualitative content analysis through the study of pertinent EU treaties, the annual EU enlargement policies by the European Commission and statements from EU leaders. The research’s timeframe is set from 2022 to 2025. The data allows the study of the traditional legal requirements for accession and enables the investigation of potential alterations in the ‘classic’ accession process in light of relevant geopolitical developments. Furthermore, attention is given to the quick granting of ‘Candidate Status’ to Ukraine only a few months following its application for EU membership. Additionally, the paper focuses on the legal procedural steps of EU enlargement to identify any potential cases of fast-tracking pertaining to Ukraine’s application. Lastly, the paper studies whether the term enlargement has been used as a tool of geopolitical resilience within the EU’s legal framework following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. This article is expected to yield that Ukraine’s accession process has been accelerated due to the geopolitical changes that resulted from the 2022 Russian invasion. The case study of Ukraine serves to understand how conflicts close to the EU borders, geopolitical alternations, and security uncertainties significantly influence both the normative and legal evolution of the EU. Moreover, this paper seeks to illustrate that the EU enlargement process is no longer just an instrument of democratization, stability, and alignment with EU values, but also a method for responding to external threats that resulted from geopolitical changes. Also, this publication further contributes to the scholarly discussion on how crises reshape certain legal processes of supranational organizations and provides an understanding of (the future of) EU enlargement in an era of constant geopolitical changes and tensions.