When Metrics Persuade: How Platform Engagement and Reach Cues Shape Conspiracy Credibility

The final chapter examines how the logic of virality and dispersion of influence within the far-right conspiratorial ecosystem may spill over. To do so, it leverages a vignette experiment design, aimed at gauging the potential impact of exposure to conspiratorial discourse among regular user. It does so by examining whether popularity cues on X can function as social proof that increases both the credibility and the perceived societal acceptance of conspiratorial discourse. Specifically, it tests whether two independent variables—engagement indicators (IV1: likes, comments, and reposts) and reach metrics (IV2: views)—increase two dependent variables: the credibility (DV1) and the perceived societal acceptance (DV2) of conspiratorial content. Participants in Belgium and Poland will be randomly assigned to view a real X-style post containing a statement endorsing the Great Replacement theory identified in Chapter 1. I will manipulate engagement and exposure metrics in a 2 × 2 design: high vs. low reach and high vs. low engagement, resulting in four conditions (high reach/high engagement, high reach/low engagement, low reach/high engagement, low reach/low engagement). The text and source of the post will remain constant across conditions, while only the visible platform features vary. Each condition is planned to include at least 300 participants, who will rate the statement’s credibility and indicate their perception of how widely the view is held in society, both on Likert scales. Manipulation and attention checks will ensure participants notice the differences in popularity and attend to the task. By isolating the role of platform-visible metrics, this study is intended to shed light on how social media features might shape users’ perceptions, implicitly showing that what goes viral on X can influence belief formation and the mainstreaming of conspiratorial propaganda. The design also highlights that algorithms promoting reactionary content and the strategic amplification of certain hashtags by far-right activists could increase the visibility and perceived legitimacy of conspiratorial claims. Ethical safeguards, including careful framing, decontextualization of posts, and debriefing, will be implemented to mitigate potential harm.