Government-Opposition Dynamics on the Nobel Peace Committee

What is the cost for Norway to not award the Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump? And how does the prospect of souring foreign relations shape the Committee’s willingness to honor regime dissidents? The world’s most prestigious peace prize is an instrument of Norwegian soft power, signaling moral leadership on democracy, human rights, and reconciliation. Yet we argue that its allocation is also deeply rooted in domestic government-opposition dynamics. Committee members are nominated by national parties and appointed by Parliament. Because their terms are asynchronous with the electoral cycle, governing parties hold a majority in some years, while in others the opposition does. This institutional feature allows us to identify when foreign policy considerations shape the Committee’s decisions. Under government majorities, the Committee tends to align its choices with Norway’s diplomatic interests, avoiding awards that could strain relations with allies. Under opposition majorities, members are freer to reward movements for regime change abroad. Using new data on committee composition, laureates, and Norway’s international alignments, we show that such awards are significantly rarer under government control.