Not All Roads Lead to Moscow: Diffusion of “Digital Authoritarianism” and State Capacity in Eurasia

Authoritarian diffusion theories emphasize that international cooperation among authoritarian regimes sustains political stability through tangible resources or policy learning. Studies under this research stream previously either focused on autocracy promotion or analyzed the role of “authoritarian gravity centres” such as China and Russia as diffusion sources, while the domestic conditions of recipient regimes remained understudied. This paper proposes to view state capacities of the recipient regimes as a mediating variable shaping the diffusion effects through policy absorption. Paying close attention to state capacities as a mediating variable moves beyond the widespread approach of examining policy convergence as evidence of authoritarian diffusion, making analyses more nuanced. The paper develops this argument through a comparative case study of “digital authoritarianism” in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, drawing on secondary data and 26 stakeholder interviews. The argument is then tested statistically by using Feldstein’s Digital Repression Index and a novel 2003-2021 dataset measuring the exposure of countries to authoritarian diffusion globally. The regression results also demonstrate that state capacities have a mediating effect on diffusion. Qualitative evidence suggests regimes with weaker capacities may struggle to implement diffused practices, even when copying legislation or tech systems, as they lack the finances or the expertise for implementation.