To Govern or Not to Govern: How Media Shape Mandate Perceptions During the Government Formation Process

Research on government formation in proportional systems typically focuses on which parties, based on election results, are most likely to enter a governing coalition. Yet, little is known about how citizens interpret this process. Based on the election outcome, which parties are perceived as having the right, or mandate, to govern? We argue that media reporting on parties' electoral performance, including their evolving evaluations of parties' coalition potential, shape these mandate perceptions in the electoral aftermath. We test this assumption, and under which conditions it occurs, in the context of the 2025 Dutch election; an exceptionally close and volatile contest in a fragmented multiparty system. To do so, we first conduct a content analysis of post-election news coverage of individual political parties. Drawing on a multi-wave panel study that includes two post-election waves, we then link these data to citizens’ self-reported media exposure, and test whether and for whom media reporting impacts perceptions of each party’s mandate to govern. In doing so, we shed light on the conditions under which media coverage actively shapes attitudes crucial to sustaining democratic legitimacy.