Explaining Radical Right Support: Conspiracy Beliefs and Populist Attitudes in Four European Countries

This paper analyses how conspiracy beliefs and populist attitudes shape radical right populist voting across four Western European countries: Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland. Drawing on representative survey data, the analysis estimates a series of country-specific regression models assessing how issue-specific conspiracy beliefs related to immigration, climate change, and Covid-19, a general conspiracy mentality and populist attitudes are associated with radical right voting. In doing so, it compares the country-specific regression models to identify both common patterns and cross-national differences in the prevalence and drivers of radical right populist electoral support. The results reveal both cross-national similarities and important differences. Across all four countries, conspiracy beliefs related to immigration are positively associated with support for populist radical right parties. However, the relevance of the other issues, climate change and COVID-19, varies more strongly by national context, revealing potential differences concerning the political supply and issue politicization of these conspiracy themes. Conspiracy mentality emerges as a strong positive predictor of radical right populist support, yet once issue-specific conspiracy beliefs are taken into account, the effects of general conspiracy mentality and populist attitudes are substantially reduced or disappear. Overall, the findings highlight conspiracy beliefs as a key demand-side factor underpinning radical right voting in Western Europe, underscoring their broader relevance for understanding contemporary political conflict and electoral behaviour.