Comparing Populism and Conspiracy Thinking in Shaping Democratic Preferences Across Europe

Democratic societies in Europe and beyond are currently witnessing a surge in populism and conspiracy theories. These phenomena threaten the concept of representation and other aspects of liberal democracy. Drawing on surveys conducted in four countries with significant right-wing populist parties, namely Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland, this paper explores the relationship between populist attitudes, conspiracy mentality and preferences for democratic and non-democratic forms of decision-making. The results suggest that populist and conspiratorial attitudes generally align with decision-making preferences that diverge from the liberal democratic model of representation by elected politicians. Support is found for all three alternatives presented: direct democracy, decision-making by experts, and decisions by an unrestricted leader. In the pooled model, we find populist support for all three non-representative forms of decision-making, but especially for direct democracy. Conspiracy mentality is also significantly related to all three modes but support for decisions by experts is weaker. Cross-national comparisons reveal meaningful differences: While populist attitudes consistently correlate with support for direct democracy, the influence of conspiracy mentality varies and is absent in Switzerland, where direct democracy is already institutionalized. Support for decision-making by experts is primarily driven by populist attitudes in Austria. Finally, a preference for decisions by a strong leader is significantly related to conspiracy mentality in Austria and France.