Wallets, Redistribution, and Vote Choice: Experimental Evidence from Germany

Why do many voters support parties whose distributive policies contradict their economic interests? Many low-income voters back parties whose distributive programmes primarily benefit higher-income groups, and even voters who favor redistribution do not consistently choose parties with more redistributive platforms. This contribution presents the design and planned pre-registration of a two-wave online survey experiment in Germany that will test whether factual information about the distributive consequences of party programmes can reduce these gaps. Respondents will be randomly assigned to receive either (1) factual information on parties’ distributive profiles, expressed as expected household income gains and losses, or (2) a control condition. The planned pre-registration specifies outcomes and tests in three steps. First, we will quantify baseline (mis)alignment between distributive considerations and party support among low-income voters and among voters who favor redistribution. Second, we will test whether the information treatment increases alignment, both in party perceptions and in propensity-to-vote measured before and after exposure. Third, we will assess whether information effects are weaker among respondents with higher distrust in information sources, those who prioritize cultural or identity issues over economic issues, and those who do not identify with low-income groups. By identifying when distributive information translates into electoral support (and when it does not) the study speaks to debates on voter–party alignment, the electoral foundations of redistribution, and the persistence of unequal responsiveness.