A Shifting Landscape: Regional Elections in Italy (2010–2025)

During the so-called First Republic, which lasted until the early 1990s, voting behaviour and electoral geography in Italy were highly predictable. Political competition was structured around a clear territorial divide between some areas supporting the Communist Party and others largely loyal to the centrist Catholic party. The collapse of the traditional party system in the early 1990s marked the end of this stability and inaugurated a new phase characterised by increasing electoral volatility from one election to the next. While a substantial body of literature has analysed this transformation from a national perspective, a regional-level analysis can offer a more nuanced understanding of Italy’s current political instability. Part of the literature has focused on the changes in regional voting patterns following the emergence of the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) between 2010 and 2013, questioning whether it would consolidate as a third pole in the party system or remain a transient phenomenon. Since then, however, the Italian political landscape has undergone further profound changes. The centre-left, and in particular the Partito Democratico, experienced a dramatic loss of support—partly absorbed by the M5S— partially recovering only in the most recent electoral rounds. The M5S itself shifted from its electoral peak in 2018 to defeat in the 2022 general election, while simultaneously becoming more institutionalised. At the same time, the centre-right coalition has been experiencing recurring shifts in internal power balances among Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and the Lega. These dynamics have unfolded against a backdrop of steadily declining voter turnout, especially in second-order elections, and increasing personalisation of politics, a trend that has also come to shape regional contests through the growing prominence of regional leaders. This paper aims to contribute to the literature with a more systematic, long-term analysis of these developments. Rather than focusing on individual electoral cycles, it adopts a longitudinal perspective to examine regional electoral data from 2010 to 2025, assessing levels of instability across regions over time. The findings suggest that even historically stable regional strongholds have become increasingly vulnerable to electoral turnover. Particular attention will be devoted to the personalisation of regional politics and to the possibility of the country entering a new phase of “virtual bipolarity” at the subnational level.