Euroscepticism in the Western Balkans as a Risk Factor for EU Enlargement in a New Geopolitical Context

The new geopolitical reality created by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has brought EU enlargement to the forefront of the European political agenda, declaring it as a geopolitical instrument for safeguarding the security and stability of the continent. As a result, the European Union began to adopt a more explicitly geopolitical approach toward the Western Balkans after years of stagnation in their accession process, which was marked by growing tendencies towards Euroscepticism among public opinion in several states from the region. The aim of this paper is to examine whether, and to what extent, Euroscepticism in the Western Balkans constitutes a risk factor for the EU enlargement process in the context of the Union’s renewed commitment to the European integration of the region. The analysis is based on the assumption that Euroscepticism in the Western Balkans fluctuates in response to changes in the nature of EU enlargement policy and the evolving dynamics of the accession process. Therefore, it investigates it through the interplay between the EU’s recent comprehensive assessment of the progress of the candidate states and domestic factors shaping citizens’ views toward enlargement in the region. The paper uses a comparative qualitative approach, combining analysis of EU progress reports, public opinion data, and selected state case studies from the Western Balkans. By linking shifts in public opinion to both EU-level policy signals and domestic conditions, the paper seeks to assess whether Euroscepticism represents a structural challenge to enlargement or reflects a contingent response to the credibility and consistency of the accession process in the current geopolitical context.