How the Cultural Backlash Fails: an Investigation into the Link Between Social Conservatism and Radical-Right Voting in European Electorates

A common strand in the literature on electoral behavior in Western democracies explains growing voter support for radical-right parties through increasing alienation of social conservatives from mainstream society in the context of intergenerational, progressive value change. Several authors have contributed to this explanation of electoral change, but the argument is made most forcefully by Norris and Inglehart (2019). This account of electoral successes of the radical right relies on a pathway from social conservatism to authoritarian personality traits and subsequent electoral behavior, and it also predicts when that sequence is most likely to be triggered. This paper critically reviews the theoretical argument for the mechanism and then subjects it to an empirical test. Using cross-country survey data from the European Values Study, I investigate key predictions of the cultural backlash theory across countries and over time. The analysis operationalizes social conservatism through different facets of attitudes towards sexual liberalism, which stand central in the arguments that the paper engages with. In many countries, the results do not match the theoretical predictions. In countries where they do, there is a mismatch between these findings and the long-running historical trends that are invoked to explain cultural change, and by implication also cultural alienation, in Western societies since 1945. Specifically, the background conditions identified by the authors as the cause of intergenerational value change are not present, and the nationally predominant value patterns remain conservative. Conversely, in countries where the theorized conditions for a cultural backlash are met and progressive values are shared by large and growing parts of the population, there is mostly weak or no evidence to support the argument of a backlash. I conclude with a brief discussion of the results and of what they may tell us about the radical right and its supporters in different European countries.