Terror Beyond Borders: How the October 7 Hamas Attack Shifted Immigration Attitudes in Austria and Germany

Violent conflicts can shape public opinion far beyond their immediate settings. Prior research shows that Islamist terrorism increases anti-immigrant sentiment even in countries not directly affected, as perceived threat is generalized across groups. The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, provides a contemporary test of whether such transnational threat reactions persist in Western Europe, where Muslim minorities are large and intergroup contact is extensive. Using Round 11 of the European Social Survey and a regression discontinuity design based on interview timing, this study examines attitudinal responses in Germany and Austria. The analysis identifies a clear discontinuity: a previously declining trend in anti-immigration sentiment reverses immediately after the attack. These findings suggest that even in contact-rich societies, distant conflicts can activate latent ethnocentric attitudes, highlighting the continued relevance of perceived civilizational boundaries in shaping mass opinion.