Electoral Pathways to Re-Democratization in Central and Southeast Europe - A Comparative Configurational Analysis

Research on democratic deterioration in post-communist Europe has highlighted the importance of the electoral displacement of illiberal incumbents (Guasti 2021; Riedl et al. 2024) as a key enabler of re-democratization. The rise and persistence of illiberal rule are shaped by broader structural demand- and supply-side factors—such as dissatisfaction with liberal democracy, socio-political polarisation, patronalism, and state capture (Svolik 2019; Vachudova 2020; Boese et al. 2021). However, the electoral displacement of illiberal incumbents depends on a distinct conjuncture of proximate political conditions. The paper suggests that proximate pathways leading to the displacement of illiberal incumbents rest on combinations of (1) large-scale civic mobilisation triggered by domestic political shocks (Vachudova et al. 2024) and (2) strong and effective opposition coordination, involving both broad pro-democracy coalitions (Anderson 2022; Gamboa 2023) and/or new anti-establishment challenger parties. Effective coordination is conceptualised not merely as maximising organisational integration, but as encompassing programmatic and policy coherence, including appeals to “newness” and political renewal (Sikk 2012; Hanley & Sikk 2016). The paper examines Central European states (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Czechia) and Southeast European states (Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia), where illiberal incumbents have sometimes been displaced through elections. The inclusion of Southeast Europe increases causal diversity and allows for more demanding tests of electoral re-democratization under conditions of deeper patronalism, state capture, and competitive authoritarianism. The paper covers the cases of 21 national parliamentary elections between 2010 and 2025, focusing on elections following major protest waves or moments of intensified regime contestation. Methodologically, the paper employs Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) (Ragin 1987; Schneider & Wagemann 2012), which is well suited to medium-N comparisons where configurations of causal conditions matter, and multiple causal pathways are expected (Schneider 2023). It adopts a two-stage QCA design (Schneider 2009). In the first stage, structural conditions—regime type, levels of autocratisation, degree of state capture, and constraints on electoral competition—are analysed as permissive or limiting contexts (Boese et al. 2021). In the second stage, proximate political triggers—opposition unity, the presence of anti-establishment challenger parties, and civic mobilisation—are incorporated into a more integrated account of pathways to illiberal incumbent displacement. The findings point to three broad implications. First, civic mobilisation is politically consequential only when combined with a credible electoral alternative. Second, opposition coalitions and anti-establishment challenger parties play a decisive role when they combine effectively, but maximum opposition unity is not always optimal. Third, the level and depth of autocratisation and patronalism fundamentally shape the opportunity structure for electoral pushback, helping to explain repeated failures in countries such as Serbia and Hungary. By integrating Central and Southeast Europe and adopting a two-stage configurational approach, the paper contributes to comparative debates on democratic resilience and electoral regime change. It allows reconceptualising apparently paradigmatic trajectories of autocratisation, such as Orbán’s Hungary, as one path among many (Buštíková & Guasti 2017; Cianetti & Hanley 2021), while feeding into broader discussions on the limits of elections as critical junctures in re-democratization.