Multiple Faces of Turbulence: Interest Groups Responses to Political Instability and Geopolitical Challenges in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia

Referring to a condition in which “events, demands, and support interact and change in highly variable, inconsistent, unexpected, or unpredictable ways” (Ansell and Trondal 2018, 1; Ansell et al. 2020), turbulence has become one of the key concepts for defining current challenges in public governance, also affecting the operation of interest groups. While existing research identifies different levels of turbulence (such as turbulent environments, organisations, and turbulence of scale; Ansell and Trondal 2018) or distinguishes between human- and crisis-induced turbulence (Selin 2023; Ansell et al. 2025), insufficient attention has been paid to linking the sources of turbulence with organisational responses to it. This is particularly relevant for interest groups, whose activities and constituencies are both affected by turbulence. Drawing on the literature on interest groups, lobbying and democratic backsliding, and focusing on two turbulence types – political instability and challenges to democratic institutions, and geopolitical challenges and national security threats – we ask the following questions: Do different types of turbulence serve as a challenge or rather an opportunity for interest groups? How different turbulence types affect interest groups in terms of networking, lobbying or structural reorganization? We rely on data from a survey of interest groups (NGOs, charities, citizen groups, trade unions, and professional and business associations) conducted in Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia in 2025–2026. Our research contributes to both interest group and turbulence research by demonstrating variation in interest group strategic responses to internal and external challenges; in doing so, we also advocate a more nuanced typology of turbulence.