A Dynamic Model of Populist Regionalism and Strategic Change: Comparing Hungary’s Orbánism and Venezuela’s Chavismo

Expanding research shows that populist leaderships exhibit considerable variation in their approaches to regional integration once they assume power and gain control over foreign policy. Yet the sources of strategic change among prominent populists over the course of their tenure remain insufficiently theorized and explained. This paper proposes a model of dynamic populist regionalism, which delineates the range of regional strategies available to populists in office and operationalizes the mechanisms that drive transitions from one strategy to another, affecting different pathways. To apply the model, the study develops two longitudinal, in-depth case studies –Orbán’s Hungary and Chávez–Maduro’s Venezuela– providing the temporal scope necessary to trace strategic shifts in their approaches to regional organizations across different phases. Specifically, the analysis examines Hungary’s engagement with the EU and the Visegrád Group (V4), and Venezuela’s interactions with the OAS, ALCA (FTAA), ALBA, the Andean Community (CAN), MERCOSUR, UNASUR, and CELAC. The findings contribute to the expanding literature on the impact of the international dimensions of populism and, more specifically, to understanding how endogenous and exogenous dynamics produce strategic adaptation within contemporary populist leaderships in both Latin America and Europe.