What Makes Leaders Popular? The Impact of Political Skill and Performance in Australia 1985-2025

Decades long trends have reinforced the electoral salience and institutional power of political leaders like Prime Ministers. Given a more volatile electorate, the performance of leaders is under increased scrutiny from the public and party elites. The ability of leaders to garner widespread personal appeal is therefor of significant importance for the stability of governments. But what makes a leader popular, and a more appealing option than his or her opponents? Traditionally, leaders’ popularity has declined over time, notwithstanding boosts from favorable economic conditions, election victories or ‘rally around the flag’ events. However, leaders’ own political skill and performance ability may be becoming more salient. Scandals, leadership challenges, and by-elections present opportunities for leaders to demonstrate their political skill. Additionally, individuals may build a store of political capital and momentum before becoming leader or over the course of their term to carry them through scandals. But which of these factors is most important in shaping popularity? Utilizing a novel database of public opinion polls matched to political and economic variables from 1985-2025 in Australia, we ask three questions: 1) What shapes party leader popularity over time? (2) Which political performance factors most predict leader popularity? (3) And how does leader popularity ultimately shape their longevity and electoral success? Using time-series analysis we find that in the era of personalized politics the ability to navigate leadership instability and scandal explain changes in leaders’ popularity over time. Our findings suggest that although leaders tend to lose their appeal over their tenure, volatility can be managed through skillful performance.