Democratic Backsliding and Judicial Review: Disqualification of Populist Candidates: A Comparative Analysis of U.S & Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between two phenomena that characterize many contemporary democracies. The first is democratic backsliding, with particular emphasis on the rise of populist leaders. The second concerns institutional mechanisms of disqualification, including impeachment and criminal indictments, used against heads of state or populist leaders. While both phenomena have been widely studied, the relationship between them remains underexplored. The central question I address is whether, and under what conditions, disqualification procedures can effectively counter populism. To explore this question, I compare two recent cases where disqualification proceedings were launched against populist leaders: Donald Trump in the United States and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Both arose in similar political contexts and within comparable constitutional frameworks, yet the outcomes diverged sharply. In the U.S., disqualification efforts against Trump failed not only to bar his candidacy but arguably revived his political career. By contrast, in Brazil, proceedings following Bolsonaro’s involvement in riots after the 2022 elections removed him swiftly from the political arena (at least for now). I argue that the differing roles of judicial review in the two systems explain this outcome. In Brazil, the supreme judicial institution – the STF – was one of the main targets of Bolsonaro's populist campaign. Nevertheless, the Court's powerful and concentrated judicial review powers that included disqualification capacities enabled it to mount an effective response. It exercised these powers swiftly and decisively when Bolsonaro's popularity was at its lowest, thereby bringing his political career to an end. In the United States, by contrast, no judicial or bureaucratic institution holds comparable authority. The disqualification proceedings against Trump have been slow, unfocused, uncoordinated, and dispersed. As a result, not only did they fail to end his political career, but they likely contributed to the revival of his campaign. I use this comparison to offer some general insights about the potential efficacy and drawbacks of disqualification procedures as an answer to 21st Century populism.