Exiled, Marginalised, and Enduring: The National Unity Government and the Politics of Resistance in Post Coup Myanmar

Periods of regime breakdown frequently generate new political authorities, shifting repertoires of contention, and emergent forms of governance. Yet we still lack a clear theoretical account of how exiled governments shape the development of social movements and rebel governance in such contexts. This paper advances a generalisable framework for understanding exiled authorities as dual actors: mobilising infrastructures that coordinate resistance, and governance entrepreneurs that influence institutional formation in contested territory. Using the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar as a strategic case, the paper examines how exiled authorities can catalyse movement cohesion, shape transitions from civil to armed and hybrid repertoires, and support the emergence of rebel governance arrangements. The NUG’s trajectory also illustrates a broader structural dilemma: strategies that enhance domestic legitimacy and governance capacity often undermine international recognition and constrain transnational support. By situating the NUG within comparative patterns of exile politics, rebel governance, and contentious mobilisation, the paper identifies mechanisms that travel across cases of authoritarian collapse. These mechanisms illuminate how exiled governments negotiate legitimacy, influence governance outcomes, and sustain collective action during protracted crises, offering theoretical insights applicable beyond the Myanmar context.