Interpreting Georgia’s Recent Foreign Policy Shift: Global Changes, Domestic Elites, and Public Opinion

Despite longstanding public support for Euro-Atlantic integration, Georgia’s government has clearly turned its back to the West, raising a critical question: Does public opinion matter at all in shaping small-state foreign policy? Using a two-wave public opinion survey (Wave 1 in 2023: N = 1,091; Wave 2 in 2024: N = 1,017), we analyze shifts in trust toward domestic and international actors amid the controversy over the “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence” and ahead of the October 2024 parliamentary elections. Our findings indicate that trust in the EU and the US remains high and that the government has pursued policies directly opposing popular preferences. This study challenges assumptions about the role of public opinion in small-state foreign policy, highlighting how external constraints, domestic power struggles, and strategic calculations can override public sentiment. As Georgia’s geopolitical trajectory diverges from its citizens’ aspirations, these findings have broader implications for understanding democratic backsliding and foreign policy autonomy in contested regions. In the paper we present the new dataset on Georgian public opinion concerning foreign policy and we discuss if public opinion matters after all when it comes to major foreign policy shifts.