Sending Mixed Signals: The Impact of Inconsistent Opposition Party Behaviour on Democratic Satisfaction

Opposition parties lie at the heart of democratic competition, offering voters a choice in elections and holding government parties to account (Dahl 1965). Yet, tensions arise when these parties adopt differing strategies across political arenas: cooperative behaviour in parliament may undermine their differentiation from government parties during electoral campaigns, while negative communication in the electoral arena can cast doubts on their willingness to engage constructively in legislative processes (Andeweg 2013). The divergent interplay between cooperation and confrontation can generate doubts among voters about an opposition party’s credibility (Garritzmann 2017: 8), potentially diminishing its ability to serve as a genuine alternative to the incumbent government. If voters lose confidence in opposition parties and their ability to create alternation of government, this may lead to reduced satisfaction with the way democracy works (see also Wegmann 2022). Thus, this paper examines the impact of divergent opposition party behaviour across the electoral and the parliamentary arena on the satisfaction with democracy of voters. Specifically, it asks: How does the divergence between opposition parties’ criticism and alternative proposals in electoral versus parliamentary communication shape citizens’ satisfaction with democracy? The communicative behaviour of 65 opposition parties in six countries between 2009 and 2019 is analysed across social media, press releases, and parliamentary speeches, using quantitative text analysis with large language models. By examining the contrasting incentives parties face inside and outside parliament and their potential effects on democratic satisfaction, this paper offers a new perspective on how communicative party behaviour shapes democratic legitimacy.