Hydrocarbon Competition in a Climate Hotspot: Climate Justice and Energy Governance in Cyprus

Recent offshore hydrocarbon discoveries have intensified geopolitical competition in the Eastern Mediterranean, reshaping regional energy politics and governance debates. While existing scholarship has largely approached these developments through the lenses of energy security, economic opportunity, and strategic competition, the implications for climate vulnerability and climate justice remain comparatively underexplored. This omission is particularly striking given that the Eastern Mediterranean is widely recognized as a climate change hotspot, characterized by rising temperatures, water scarcity, and increasing socio-environmental pressures. This paper examines how hydrocarbon exploration and development are perceived and governed in Cyprus, focusing on the intersection of energy geopolitics and climate justice. Cyprus constitutes a critical case due to its contested sovereignty, divided governance structure, and acute exposure to climate-related risks. Adopting a multi-level governance perspective, the study analyzes how state authorities in the Eastern Mediterranean, European Union institutions, and civil society actors in Cyprus frame and negotiate the relationship between hydrocarbon development, climate change, and justice concerns. Drawing on policy documents and actor perspectives, the analysis highlights how governance arrangements and power asymmetries shape energy and climate policy choices across different levels. The findings reveal a marked tension between dominant state-centric energy governance approaches, which prioritize energy security and geopolitical interests, and civil society perspectives that emphasize environmental vulnerability, intergenerational equity, and distributive justice. European Union–level discourses occupy an intermediate position, simultaneously advancing climate ambitions and supporting fossil fuel–based energy strategies in the name of regional stability and supply diversification. By situating hydrocarbon politics within broader debates on climate justice and governance, this paper contributes to political science and international political economy scholarship on energy transitions in contested regions. It argues that governance frameworks that marginalize justice considerations risk deepening socio-environmental inequalities and undermining the political legitimacy of energy and climate governance in the Eastern Mediterranean.