Voters' Mental Maps of Group Representation as an Indicator of Cleavage Formation

There is growing evidence on a new social cleavage in West European politics between the new left and far right, structured by education and universalistic-particularistic group identities. However, there is disagreement on the scope and depth of this cleavage: Some scholarship suggests it remains confined to radical voters and parties. Others contend that it increasingly (re-)structures competition between mainstream parties and their voters, and that it is crystallizing into a dominant cleavage similar to the class cleavage in the 20th century. In this study, we assess the extent of cleavage formation across West European countries, and aim to explain cross-national variance. We use a novel measure of voters’ perception of group-party representation, showing that the new cleavage has crystallized beyond the new left and far right electorates that were at its origin. Both cleavage and non-cleavage voters relate universalistic group identities to (new) left parties and particularistic group identities to the (far) right. We explain cross-country variation with reference to a sequencing model, implying that the universalism-particularism cleavage should be more strongly developed where the class cleavage has waned.