Performing the War: How Symbolic Identity and Elite Framing Structured Public Opinion in Hungary

This study investigates the paradox of Hungarian public opinion during the Russian–Ukrainian war: widespread symbolic identification with the West coexists with strong public resonance for pro-Russian narratives and resistance to pro-Ukrainian policies. Drawing on a unique mixed-method design combining qualitative content analysis and Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) applied to a representative survey (N=1,526), the paper demonstrates how elite framing and symbolic identity politics structure foreign policy attitudes. Hungarian political elites, particularly Viktor Orbán, strategically perform the war within a broader cultural narrative, mobilising frames such as national sovereignty, peace, and anti-liberal resistance to manufacture policy consensus. Findings reveal that political identities—defined by partisanship, ideological alignment, and regime preference—override socio-demographic predictors, crowding out traditional cleavages in war related opinion formation. The gap between identity and policy preferences illustrates how elite dominance in a polarised media environment can reorient public opinion without altering core cultural affiliations. These dynamics highlight a broader trend: the transformation of political leadership into the performance of cultural narratives and competition to frame ownership. The research advances constructivist theories of public opinion and contributes to debates on elite influence, democratic accountability, and the resilience of digitally mediated leadership.