The Two Faces of Resentment: Territorial Fragility, Ideological Asymmetry, and Affective Polarization in Italy

Following the 2024 European elections, Italy has experienced an increase in affective polarisation, with citizens increasingly reporting social discomfort when maintaining friendships with political opponents. This phenomenon poses a significant threat to democratic stability and social cohesion in a multilevel system in which local, regional, national and European institutions jointly influence citizens' everyday experiences and opportunities. Moving beyond conventional explanations such as ideological extremism or media echo chambers, this paper argues that Italian 'partisan animosity' is driven by two distinct yet converging 'logics of resentment': a structural-territorial logic and an evaluative-psychological one. To test these hypotheses, the study employs logistic regression analysis on original post-election survey data integrated with municipal-level indicators from the National Strategy for Internal Areas (SNAI) and the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). This methodological approach enables the estimation of the probability of affective polarisation in relation to contextual and individual factors. The first hypothesis tests for a territorial mechanism. Specifically, it suggests that peripherality is only associated with affective polarisation when coupled with high levels of structural fragility. In these 'fragile peripheries', which often correspond to disadvantaged regions within Italy’s multilevel system, the erosion of essential services and infrastructure transforms geographic distance into a profound driver of partisan animosity. This creates a 'geography of discontent' due to the perceived absence of, or malfunctioning within, public authorities at all levels of government. Conversely, in urban centres or intermediate areas, the impact of fragility on social distance is significantly reduced. The second hypothesis challenges the notion that external political efficacy is a universal solution. The analysis reveals a significant ideological asymmetry: while high external political efficacy is linked to reduced polarisation among right-wing voters, it paradoxically increases social distance and emotional tension among left-wing voters. This suggests that the perception of a 'reactive state' can exacerbate social fragmentation in highly polarised contexts, depending on the ideological perspective. The analysis shows that territorial fragility and ideological perspectives are robust, independent indicators of affective polarisation. They combine objective territorial weaknesses with subjective perceptions, taking into account populist attitudes and individual-level voting behaviour. The paper shows how multilevel governance arrangements can either mitigate or exacerbate affective polarisation, depending on how territorial inequalities intersect with ideological lenses.