On the Transformation of Maritime Political Violence

The maritime domain has become an increasingly contested space for political violence. Recent years have witnessed a proliferation of technologically sophisticated attacks on vessels and maritime infrastructure, altering the threat landscape at sea. This paper examines how emerging technologies, particularly unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vessels and cyber capabilities, are reshaping the possibilities for political violence in maritime environments. Drawing on documented incidents from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, attacks in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, the paper analyses how state and non-state actors have employed novel technological means to target shipping and offshore infrastructure. The Ukrainian deployment of naval drones against Russian Black Sea Fleet assets demonstrates how relatively inexpensive unmanned systems can challenge conventional naval superiority. These developments reflect a broader pattern in which state actors increasingly rely on unconventional instruments to project power beyond established military frameworks. Similarly, GPS spoofing incidents in the Eastern Mediterranean and repeated drone strikes on commercial vessels illustrate the expanding toolkit available to actors seeking to disrupt maritime trade. The paper argues that these technological developments lower the threshold for conducting effective maritime attacks whilst simultaneously complicating attribution. Such dynamics parallel the use of proxy structures in other theatres and carry significant implications for future patterns of political violence at sea. By examining existing cases through the lens of technology diffusion and asymmetric warfare literature, the analysis identifies trajectories likely to shape maritime security in the coming decade. The findings contribute to ongoing debates on the transformation of political violence by showing how actors deploy new instruments of violence beyond conventional military means.