To Push or to Pull? Intrastate Armed Conflict and the Trajectory of Militarization.

How does intrastate armed conflict affect militarization? This article argues that intrastate conflict drives militarization, the military’s relevance to a state’s finances, politics and society, by opening a window of opportunity for militaries and governments to expand the military’s role portfolio. However, the differing interests of the military and the government translate into divergent ambitions of both actors: During conflict, the military tries to push for material rewards and into influential political roles providing access to policymaking. The government, in contrast, aims to promote militarization that excludes the military from political decision-making while signaling support for the incumbent government. The theoretical expectations are statistically tested using a generalized synthetic control approach with global data from 1990-2020. As expected, the findings highlight that during protracted intrastate conflict the political instrumentalization of the military and its material relevance increase significantly. Notably, the military’s political influence decreases during intrastate conflict.