Explaining Variation in the Exclusion of Russia from International Organizations

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has triggered a range of Western economic sanctions, but much less is known about how international organizations (IOs) sanctioned and excluded Russia. Yet such measures—ranging from expulsion and suspension to restrictions on participation or services, and, in some cases, inaction—are central practices through which IOs draw boundaries of inclusion and exclusion in global governance. Building on a new typology of IO sanctions that distinguishes between material and communicative measures and their implementation via the IO or member state coalitions, this paper theorizes and empirically analyzes the conditions under which IOs move from symbolic censure to more far-reaching forms of exclusion in response to norm violations. Empirically, the paper introduces an original dataset covering over 90 IOs in which Russia held membership or observer status between 2014 and 2025. Methodologically, we use discrete-time event history models to estimate when IOs first adopt exclusionary measures and how these may escalate in the pathway they select. Explanatory variables include member-state factors and institutional factors. The findings show how member preferences and institutional authority jointly structure both the onset and type of IO exclusion, illuminating the politics and legitimacy of boundary-drawing in contemporary global governance.