Policy Change and Policy Stability in Highly Unstable Patronage Contexts

Traditionally, theories of policy change assume stability or incrementalism as the standard trajectory policy agencies follow when implementing policies (Wildavsky 1964). Under these normal circumstances, change typically occurs when small adjustments accumulate and reach a 'turning point,' shifting policies onto new trajectories (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). Some scholars argue that change results from evolving interest coalitions within public agencies that alter policy orientation (Sabatier 1988). Others suggest that emerging new ideas progressively reshape how policy problems are framed and addressed (Heclo 1974). Nevertheless, across most theories, policy stability remains the baseline assumption. However, this scenario differs significantly outside Western contexts, where policy stability has traditionally been the norm, albeit facing currently a reckoning amid current populist waves (Greg and Morelli 2021). In other contexts, particularly within highly politicized bureaucracies characterized by protracted conflicts, incessant instability is more the rule than the exception (Puemape 2024;McDonnell 2017; Martinez-Gallardo 2012). Such settings typically rely on hierarchical, loyalty-based arrangements between politicians and bureaucrats. Even minimal political shifts can cascade downward, resulting in widespread bureaucratic dismissals and rapid shifts in knowledge and expertise—an occurrence scholars label 'radical discontinuity’ (Balarin 2008). This paper thus asks: how does the policy process unfold in such unstable patrimonialist contexts? To address this question, the paper examines the case of Peru, characterized by an extraordinarily volatile political environment and notable patrimonialist bureaucracy (Salazar-Morales 2023). Peru is recognized as an extreme example of political instability, experiencing seven presidents over the past five years and multiple impeachment processes. Within the last three years alone, 139 ministerial replacements have occurred—an average of approximately 13 ministers per month—across Peru's 18 ministries. Each ministerial change initiates a chain reaction of bureaucratic replacements involving directors and mid-to-low-level officials, disrupting concurrent policy analyses and expertise. Such extreme bureaucratic turnover significantly hampers the translation of complex policy issues into coherent operational objectives, impacting the entire policy cycle. This paper thus reverses traditional policy change theory logic by proposing a theoretical framework explaining how policy stability emerges despite 'radical discontinuity’ (Balarin 2008). Drawing upon in-depth interviews with former, dismissed, and current public officials, this study theorizes how institutional memory is preserved, policies are stabilized, and coherence is maintained amidst pressures for continuous bureaucratic replacement. The paper begins by reviewing key tenets and assumptions of existing policy change theories, followed by an exploration of how policy change and stability manifest within Peru’s patrimonialist bureaucracy. Subsequently, the empirical strategy and results are presented. Ultimately, the paper contributes to public administration scholarship by decentering conventional understandings of policy stability and incrementalism, highlighting instead how policy coherence is maintained in contexts of sustained instability and protracted conflict.