An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of Radicalization: Evidence from North-Western Pakistan

Radicalization is a formidable challenge to the security of several nations. While radicalization continues to grow, empirical evidence on its determinants remains scant. Drawing on the surge in radicalization in Pakistan, this study jointly tests a set of salient micro, macro, and meso factors to identify the influential determinants of radicalization. This is accomplished using survey data collected in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The study constructs a multi-dimensional index of radicalization, taking into account the support for militant groups, violent behavioral intentions, and the endorsement of persecution/violence against Ahmadis and the alleged blasphemers of Islam. Results show that radicalization is predicted by the individual-level experience of adverse life events, macro-level economic and political marginalization, meso-level group/community influences such as Salafism, and sociodemographic characteristics, especially gender. This indicates that radicalization is driven by an interplay of micro-level psychological vulnerabilities, macro-level socio-political grievances, and meso-level process-oriented factors.