Trump 2.0 the European Union and Greenland

The European Union entered 2026 under extreme pressure from the radically changed foreign policy of the United States. The American intervention in Venezuela during the first days of the new year further strained transatlantic relations as Trump repeated his claim that the “US needs Greenland for national security” and has not ruled out attaining the island by military means. As Greenland is part of Denmark which is both a member of the European Union and NATO, the European governments faced serious challenges about how to react to the American threats to Denmark and thus to the EU and NATO. The paper raises the question what can the European Union and its members do to defuse the Greenland annexation crisis and redress the transatlantic relationship in a manner contributing to stability in the post liberal international order? First the paper scrutinizes decisive domestic US foreign policy coalitions and their preferences in order to position Greenland, EU and European NATO in relation to different manifestations of the administrations isolationist turn embodied by the ‘Trump Corollary’ of the Monroe Doctrine. It is examined how US public opinion and mainly Republican members of Congress view future transatlantic relations including future ties to the EU and alliances partners in light of the administration endeavors to ensure profound hemispheric domination including control over Greenland. Secondly, European aspirations including EU measures to re-arm and assume a greater NATO defense burden are analyzed in relation to parallel ambitions to boost European strategic autonomy and sovereignty. Cautious overtones and commitments to support Denmark’s military presence in Greenland are assessed in light of the fact that the autonomous territory left the EU in 1985 and is furthermore not included in NATO capability planning exercises and generally excluded from Alliance definitions of the ‘The High North’. What are the prospects of a more robust EU security commitment to the Arctic and how may Washington respond to enhanced autonomous European surveillance capabilities in the hemisphere? On this backdrop, the paper assesses competing calculus among European and US foreign policy elites as to what effect an annexation or handover of Greenland to the US would have on future transatlantic relations. Will relinquishing a territory which arguably accord a rare instance of US security dependency on a European partner cement Washingtons ongoing hemispheric isolationist turn or will it constitute an appreciated tribute ensuring future US security commitments to Europe? And do current European attempts to balance rapid expansion of defense capabilities with the quest to reduce military technology reliance on the US ire Washington further or does it enhance the perceived value of maintaining a good rapport with the Europeans? Theoretically the paper combines the notion of ‘neo-royalism’ in American foreign policy with alliance theories and neoclassical realism.