Explaining the Geography of Discontent: How Economic Shocks Affect the Spatial Dynamics of Protest

Economic shocks have a wide variety of political consequences, among the most noticeable of which are (potentially violent) protests. Existing empirical research, however, remains relatively inconclusive and reports rather weak associations between economic indicators and protest incidence. Building on these mixed findings, this contribution argues that different kinds of broadly perceived economic shocks -- such as trade and inflation shocks -- have nuanced consequences for protest mobilization. Specifically, shocks are more likely to trigger protest onset in regions which are already affected by pre-existing economic and social vulnerabilities and where local industry composition transmits shocks across different population segments. Furthermore, I argue that ongoing protests are more prone to escalate into violence if regions also contain significant settlements of minorities, reflecting a scapegoating mechanism, whereby economic stress intensifies intergroup tensions and increases the likelihood of violent targeting. Empirically, the article integrates multiple protest event datasets with subnational data on economic conditions, industry linkages, and demographic composition across countries. I employ spatial regression models, covering the years between 2000 and 2024, to test the outlined theoretical mechanisms while accounting for diffusion and spatial dependence. The results offer new insights into the complex and conditional relationship between economic shocks and the emergence as well as progression of protests.