The Durability of EU Climate and Energy Governance in an Era of Turbulence

The EU has faced a succession of compound challenges - from COVID-19 to the war in Ukraine, cost of living and energy crises and rising geopolitical competition - which have challenged its climate and energy transition ambitions, in particular its flagship ‘Green Deal’. In this context, EU energy and climate policies have become increasingly contested internally. Politicisation by opponents - from affected industrial stakeholders, to protest movements and hostile populist, far-right and centre-right parties - acts as a source of pressure influencing both the implementation of the EU Green Deal and the level of overall climate ambition, as well as the ambition of specific policies. This raises the question: how durable and resilient is the EU climate and energy governance framework in an era of turbulence? The paper investigates this question drawing from, and combining the literature on climate policy contestation and politicisation on the one hand, with the policy studies literature on policy change and durability on the other, to map the effects of turbulence identify factors of destabilisation and resilience. Empirically, the paper focuses on the impact of contestation on the implementation of the EU’s energy and climate governance framework for meeting the 2030 EU targets, as well as negotiations regarding the level of ambition for the 2040 cycle of commitments. It draws on primary document analysis and interviews to analyse the contested process of policy implementation, as well as debates on the headline 2040 EU emissions target, the specific policy instruments and sectoral targets, and how it will be governed. The paper provides broader insights into mechanisms of destabilisation and durability and resilience of EU climate and energy policies in an era of contestation and turbulence.