Risk and Response: Explaining How European Cities’ Climate Adaptation Planning Aligns With Experienced Hazards

This study evaluates how local climate adaptation plans in 90 European cities align with experienced hazards, focusing on two dimensions: internal consistency between risk assessments and adaptation measures, and external responsiveness to past hazards. Using Structural Topic Models on 110 plans, we find strong internal consistency, indicating that hazards emphasized in risk assessments are also prioritized in adaptation measures. However, external responsiveness to past hazards is modest, with alignment varying by hazard type – strongest for heatwaves, floods, and extreme winds. Temporally, pre-2015 plans exhibit stronger internal consistency, whereas post-2015 plans show greater external responsiveness in risk sections. Regionally, Northern European cities respond more strongly to past hazards than Central European cities. Contrary to expectations, transnational municipal networks and national obligations do not significantly improve alignment. The study demonstrates the utility of NLP for large-scale plan analysis and highlights a key policy tension: as cities prioritize action, they must balance responsiveness to past hazards with preparation for future climate risks.