Risk and Response: Explaining the Risks and Measures in the Climate Adaptation Plans of 91 European Cities

Cities are key actors in climate change adaptation, yet their capacities and willingness to implement adaptation measures vary significantly. Research demonstrates the factors influencing the presence of a local climate adaptation plan – national regulation, city size, transnational municipal network participation. Surprisingly, a city’s climate vulnerability based on objective risks does not significantly predict whether a city has an adaptation plan. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding whether local climate risks affect the content of the plan, if cities do have one. Despite the growing body of adaptation research, few studies have explained the adaptation measures cities choose and how these measures align with the climate risks they face. In this study we use structural topic modeling to evaluate the relationships between 1) risks and measures in local climate adaptation plans for 91 European cities, 2) and how the objective risks of a city and the risks and measures discussed in the plans align. We find a significant relationship between hot days, extreme heat discussed in plans, and measures discussed to address extreme heat. However, these effects depend on the type of plan. We plan to extend this analysis to flooding and other climate risks. This study of European cities shows how adaptation plan type and climate risk influence the content of the local climate adaptation plans and can inform policy makers, transnational municipal networks and city adaptation planning strategies.