Walking the Talk: A Comparative Case Study on Energy Transition Policy Processes Using Agent Based Modelling

Energy systems around the world are undergoing radical transformation in terms of their stocks, flows, markets, technologies, actors, and institutions. Driven primarily by sustainability policies and perceptions of security risks, current changes differ significantly from past energy transitions in terms of their depth, scale, speed, and complexity. Sustainable energy transition policies are often modelled as a cyclical, sequential, and step by step processes based on scientific rationality corresponding to Harold Lasswell’s stages model. Recently, energy transition scholars have also underlined the need for including an understanding of political dynamics and power relationships in the techno-economic and socio-technical descriptions of energy systems (Cherp, Vinichenko, Jewell, Brutschin, & Sovacool, 2018; Kern & Rogge, 2018; Köhler, et al., 2019; Geels, 2019; Newell, 2015). It has also been argued that a linear and apolitical model of policymaking characterized by objective analysis is not adequate and will need to be supplemented by alternate paradigms that account for multiple agents, coalitions, institutions, narratives, periods of stability and change, path dependence, multiple layers of governance embedded in different socio-political contexts (Neukirch, 2022; Gründinger, 2017; Goldthau, 2012; Sutton, 1999; Spiller & Tommasi, 2003). To explore the black box of policy processes, Kern & Rogge, (2018) critically reviewed five prominent theories in energy transition context– (i) Advocacy coalitions framework (Sabatier, 1988), (ii) Multiple streams approach (Kingdon, 1984), (iii) Punctuated equilibrium theory (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993), (iv) Discourse coalitions (Fischer, 2002), and (v) Policy feedback theory (Pierson, 1993). They further argue that these theories need to be adapted to better explain real-world messy policies on energy transition dynamics (Kern & Rogge, 2018). It is no longer sufficient to ask – what are the available policy options and expected outcomes but also to understand messy policy processes or policy-as-processes surrounding the entire spectrum of policy stages that explore how to get there (Fell, Roelich, & Middlemiss, 2022; Colebatch & Hoppe, 2018; Brinkerhoff, 1996). It will also be important to know how these top-down policies play out at macro, meso, and micro levels influenced by power dynamics and geopolitics at regional and global levels (Kuzemko, 2022; Goldthau & Sitter, 2022). However, in comparison to the growing body of energy transition literature on long-term policy content and outcomes in terms of fuel choices and emerging technologies, the how questions surrounding messy policy processes in different background contexts have remained understudied. To address this research gap, I draw from energy transition literature and policy process theories to compare how long-term, top-down, and scientifically rational policies play out under different institutional, social, and political settings using agent-based modelling (ABM) framework. With representative nationalities as my case laboratories, I expect to identify common threads as well as uniqueness of policy choices made taking into account different agents, coalitions, institutions, narratives, periods of stability and change, path dependence and multiple layers of governance. I believe that a comparative analysis will not only uncover useful insights into the black box of policy processes but also inform the discourses on content, choices, and outcomes of sustainable energy transition policies.