This paper concerns a successful emerging group of parties in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) which combine anti-establishment appeals with support for moderate reform policies. Such anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs), as we term them include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Freedom and Solidarity (Slovakia), and TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic). Although widespread in the region, AERPs’ fortunes have varied. Some have enjoyed instant popularity and immediately gained government office, while others won limited support and remained political outsiders. In this paper we apply the two step Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique developed by Schneider and Wagemenn to consider the conditions for AERP (non-)breakthrough and government participation in CEE member states in the period 1998-2011. Our paper builds on the small but growing literature applying QCA to party development by using a combination of national and electoral contexts and individual parties (for government participation) as a unit of analysis. We also seek use the set theoretic logic to distinguish between sub-types of AERPs. Among explanatory conditions for AERP breakthrough we consider are levels and trends of unemployment and corruption; previous party system stability; the strength of radical populist challenges; and turnout. In our findings we identify six sufficient paths for AERP breakthrough in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, which can be further interpreted into three broad patterns. We conclude by reviewing the implications of our findings for research on AERPs in CEE and discussing how our analysis can be broadened to include party systems iWestern Europe, where a number of similar AERP-type parties can be identified. KEY WORDS: new parties, QCA, anti-establishment politics, Central and East Europe
