When Autocratisation Turns Violent: Conditions and Mechanisms

Does autocratisation spur civil conflict? Existing research has shown that transitions towards democracy increase the risk of violent conflict. Yet, the reverse process, movement away from democracy, and how it impacts on civil conflict has received far less scholarly attention. The current global wave of autocratisation calls for re-examining this relationship and its conditions. We propose two main mechanisms through which autocratisation may spark civil conflict. First, civil conflict may arise as a direct reaction to autocratisation, if civil resistance movements, aggrieved elites, or existing rebel groups decide to mobilise violently against democratic backsliding. Second, autocratising leaders may strategically employ polarisation, use violence against their opponents or (re)ignite conflict to consolidate and strengthen their rule. We expect the risk of violent conflict to increase primarily if autocratization coincides with an economic downturn and deep-seated societal cleavages. Moreover, characteristics of the autocratization process itself such as the mode (e.g. incumbent-led versus coups), as well as its degree and speed can matter for the mobilization of violent resistance. To test these theoretical expectations, we employ conditional logistic regression models using V-Dem and UCDP data covering a global sample from 1945 to 2023. This presents the most comprehensive analysis to date of the relationship between autocratisation and civil conflict onset to our knowledge. Our fine-grained analyses also disentangle the circumstances under which autocratisation leads to violence and further zoom into our theorized mechanisms.