The Autocratization Ecosystem: Governance Vacuums and Extremism in Fragile States in Africa

In this paper, we examine how autocratization processes generate governance vacuums that allow for an ecosystem that engenders extremism and extremist groups to take root, expand and thrive in Africa’s fragile states. Recent scholarship links authoritarian drift to weakened state legitimacy and disrupted local governance structures, yet few studies explicitly analyse autocratization as an enabling environment for extremist mobilisation. Drawing on comparative evidence from Mali, Burkina Faso and Mozambique, the study combines spatial event data with qualitative conflict mapping, analysis of state counterterror policy and discourse to trace changes in insurgent activity before and after major autocratizing turns, particularly military takeovers and executive centralization. The paper’s findings and conclusions aim to clarify how shifts toward authoritarian rule reshape state–society relations, local security provision and extremist group incentives.