Informal Lobbying and Polarization on the Belt and Road

The polarization of media discourse regarding the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a noticeable feature of the media coverage of this subject since at least the emergence of the ‘debt diplomacy’ narrative surrounding Hambantota port in late 2016. This raises the question of what the drivers of this polarization are at the level of the BRI-participant countries themselves. One possibility is that this polarization is (at least partially) driven by formal interest groups, including NGOs and chambers of commerce. Alternatively, these formal interest groups may have a moderating influence on the polarization of media discourse, as they seek to represent the diverse interests of particular social groups or constituent members. A third possibility is that the positions that these interest groups adopt in relation to the BRI are actually driven by the polarization of media discourse, rather than the other way around, as the ability of interest groups to represent the interests of particular social groups or members becomes increasingly constrained under mediatized and politicized conditions. In order to establish which of these processes are occurring within BRI-participant countries a big data computational text analysis (CTA) approach is employed. This approach involves using natural language processing (NLP) methods to extract and characterize the statements regarding the BRI made on behalf of diverse interest groups within the media coverage of participant countries, and also to characterize that country’s BRI media coverage as a whole. These two variables are conceptualized as elite polarization and mass (media) polarization respectively, thus allowing for an investigation of the causal relationship between these two phenomena. The inclusion of statements made on behalf of political parties within the concept of elite polarization, moreover, also allows for an investigation of the relationship between interest group polarization and party polarization. The theoretical lens that is used to generate predictions regarding the scope, nature and causal directionality of polarization in this context combines theories of collective action with theories of politicization. This approach allows for specific hypotheses to be advanced regarding both the expected patterns of interest group mobilization and polarization within the media coverage of BRI-participant countries in relation to both party mobilization and polarization and mass (media) polarization. At the same time, the incorporation of variables that control for a country’s level of media freedom, political regime type, economic complexity, and economic and geopolitical relationship with China also allows for the effects of these institutional and structural factors on interest group, party, and media polarization to be determined within the context of the BRI.