War Refugees and the Ukrainian Demographic Crisis

The purpose of this proposal is to provide a comparative analysis of the Ukrainian government’s response to the issue of Ukrainian refugees having left the country after the Russian full-scale invasion of 2022 and the perception of this challenge among Ukrainian scholars. While the rebuilding of Ukraine is being debated and the Ukrainian government is considering a demographic development strategy up to 2040, the Ukrainian Institute of Demography and Social Research, has warned that only 30% Ukrainians would return home (Libanova, 2025). Ukrainian demographs (Libanova, 2025) consider that the governments of EU countries will do everything they can to keep Ukrainians there. This phenomenon of brain drain could be exacerbated by the ongoing war, as well as by the socio-professional profile of those who have left the country. Around 70% of Ukrainian female migrants have a higher education qualification, and over 80% are in employment. They represent a valuable pool of human resources for Europe. Moreover, statistics confirm that the Ukrainian population is decreasing rapidly: in 2024, there were 495,090 deaths and only 176,679 births; the death rate was nearly three times higher than the birth rate. The paper thus stresses that the Russian war in Ukraine is causing a lasting demographic catastrophe. While most migration research has focused on exile from Ukraine from the perspective of EU member countries (Gemenne & Thiollet, 2022 ; Fomina & Pachocka, 2024) or Ukrainian citizens in exile (Thiollet et al., 2025; Dakowska, 2025 ; Fihel & al., 2025), this paper considers war-induced migration from the viewpoint of the Ukrainian government. It addresses the paradoxes arising from the current situation. On the one hand, the millions of Ukrainians who have left the country have preserved their lives and acquired new resources, and some of them have helped to inform Western public opinion about the situation in Ukraine.On the other hand, the longer this exile lasts, the weaker their chances of returning become. Drawing on various sources, including legal acts, presidential discourses, decrees, press articles and expert reports, the paper analyses the specific Ukrainian diaspora policies amidst the ongoing imperial war.