In this paper we will report on the current development of our methodology of the research project «Political Stability of the Russian Federation: the Concept and a Technique of the Analysis, Forecasting and Modeling» which is carried out under the tender of the Russian Federation Government''s Department of Education (2010-2013). The project is based on our two large-scale case studies data of a latent political tension and political stability of the Moscow region (under the grant of the Moscow Region Government 2007/2008). We have built and tested a first version of a region''s political stability computer simulator. Both internal and external factors of political stability are modeled as the parts of the whole structure of stability model in the context of the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy and the growing influence of nonstate actors. The methodology elaborated with aim to represent modeling and forecasting scenarios 2025. The structure of geopolitical space has a quality of multidimensionality and the key elements are represented by «actors» e.g. the most influential powers – USA, China and India with their allies, their «vision» of the global situation (strategic culture), the «resources» which may be used and the «strategies» in the struggle for supremacy or domination. Computer simulation gives an efficient method to simulate and understand behavior of political process and opens new possibilities for the analysis based on ideas about origins of complicated behavioral complexes from rather simple operations. In this paper we apply combined system dynamics and agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a state political stability context. We argued that the choice of model architecture, i.e. how to partition the model into components, what to aggregate and what behavior is best mapped to a process diagram, belongs mainly to the domain of theoretical ground and intuition of the modeler.
